{
 "SCHEMA": "GeaSpirit prospective validation, public derivative v1",
 "schema_note": "A fixed schema applied identically to every case, so no case can quietly omit the fields that went badly.",
 "CASE_ID": "GS-PRED-003",
 "TARGET": "Linka Tungsten Project, Lander County, Nevada, USA (Viking Mines Ltd, ASX:VKA)",
 "PREDICTION_TYPE": "SPATIAL / COVER GEOMETRY",
 "CUTOFF": "2026-09-12T23:59:59Z",
 "SEALED_AT": "2026-09-12T08:45:00Z",
 "PRIORITY": "n/a - this case ranks no asset; it predicts a geometry",
 "CONFIDENCE": "MEDIUM on every target, preregistered. The pre-seal analysis found LOW would have been the better call; the frozen value stands unchanged, because a confidence revised after the analysis is worthless.",
 "QUESTION": "Within the declared domain at Linka, does the base of the volcanic cover lie at a constant ELEVATION near 1771.2 m rather than at a constant DEPTH below present topography?",
 "PREDICTION": "Within the declared domain at Linka, the base of the Bates Mountain Tuff lies at an approximately constant pre-volcanic ELEVATION of 1771.2 m, not at a constant depth below present topography. For any future drillhole whose published log reports young volcanic cover from surface within the domain, the depth from collar to the top of pre-volcanic basement equals the collar elevation on USGS 3DEP 1 m lidar minus 1771.2 m, to within 8 m.",
 "MODEL": "predicted_cover_depth_m = lidar_collar_elevation_m - 1771.2",
 "RL_DATUM_m": 1771.2,
 "TOLERANCE_m": 8,
 "VERTICAL_DATUM_CHECK": "DATUM_CONFIRMED_COMPATIBLE, empirically. The operator names no vertical datum in any of 47 announcements, so documentary equivalence is unavailable. 69 published surface RLs against the 1 m lidar give mean offset -0.15 m, sd 0.39 m, range -1.23 to +0.50 m, with all reported RLs integer. That excludes an NGVD29/NAVD88 mismatch (~+0.9 m) and an ellipsoidal/orthometric one (~+22 m). 0.15 m is 2% of the 8 m tolerance.",
 "DOMAIN": {
  "D1_conditional_primary": "A hole qualifies only if its published log reports young volcanic cover (Bates Mountain Tuff or equivalent) FROM SURFACE. The domain identifies itself from the log, which removes any need to map the tuff edge - a boundary that GS-PRED-002 established cannot be drawn with the evidence held.",
  "D2_spatial_bound": "Collar within 512953-514975 E, 4352160-4354255 N, EPSG:26911 (NAD83 / UTM zone 11N).",
  "D3_exclusions": [
   "collars on pre-Tertiary bedrock, i.e. no cover logged at surface",
   "collars within 75 m of Linka Main (514074/4353253), Hillside (514240/4353545) or Conquest (514469/4353702)",
   "holes whose collar coordinates are not published, or published only in an ungridded figure"
  ],
  "reporting": "Every hole drilled in the AOI during the resolution window is listed with its domain status. Excluded holes are reported with the reason and counted. None is silently dropped."
 },
 "TARGETS": {
  "LNK3-T01": {
   "type": "POINT",
   "E": 513859,
   "N": 4353036,
   "collar_RL_m": 1808.4,
   "predicted_depth_m": 37.2,
   "band_m": [
    29.2,
    45.2
   ],
   "CONFIDENCE": "MEDIUM",
   "status": "PARTIALLY_KNOWN_BUT_GRADEABLE",
   "resolver": "any hole within 25 m of this collar with a published log"
  },
  "LNK3-T02": {
   "type": "ZONE",
   "bbox_26911": [
    513650,
    4352850,
    514000,
    4353100
   ],
   "area_km2": 0.087,
   "collar_RL_p10_p50_p90": [
    1793.4,
    1802.8,
    1813.0
   ],
   "predicted_depth_P10_P50_P90_m": [
    22.2,
    31.6,
    41.8
   ],
   "predicted_depth_min_max_m": [
    15.8,
    45.8
   ],
   "CONFIDENCE": "MEDIUM"
  },
  "LNK3-T03": {
   "type": "ZONE",
   "bbox_26911": [
    513350,
    4353050,
    513800,
    4353400
   ],
   "area_km2": 0.158,
   "collar_RL_p5_p50_p95": [
    1767.7,
    1777.7,
    1794.4
   ],
   "predicted_depth_p5_p50_p95_m": [
    -3.5,
    6.5,
    23.2
   ],
   "frac_predicted_no_cover_pct": 17,
   "CONFIDENCE": "MEDIUM"
  },
  "LNK3-N01": {
   "type": "ZONE_NEGATIVE_DIRECTION",
   "bbox_26911": [
    513000,
    4352600,
    513550,
    4352950
   ],
   "area_km2": 0.193,
   "collar_RL_p5_p50_p95": [
    1754.3,
    1771.4,
    1791.6
   ],
   "predicted_depth_p5_p50_p95_m": [
    -16.9,
    0.2,
    20.4
   ],
   "frac_bedrock_at_or_above_datum_pct": 50,
   "PREDICTION": "Across the half of this zone lying at or below 1771.2 m, pre-volcanic basement is within 3 m of surface.",
   "CONFIDENCE": "MEDIUM"
  }
 },
 "STRUCTURAL_SLOPE_PREDICTION": "Across qualifying holes, a regression of logged base-of-cover ELEVATION on collar elevation has a slope near 0. A constant-depth model predicts 1. A fitted slope closer to 1 than to 0 falsifies this prediction regardless of per-hole tolerances. NOTE, DISCLOSED: the preregistration names no regression estimator. The falsifier is phrased as 'closer to 1 than to 0', which is robust across sane estimators, but the omission is a defect frozen into the case and is not repaired here.",
 "KNOWN_VS_PROSPECTIVE": {
  "KNOWN_AND_CARRYING_NO_CREDIT": [
   "The RL 1771.2 relationship itself, observed during the earlier GS-PRED-002 work and classified training-only.",
   "The four known points: LKRC0013 (the sole calibration), LKRC0001, MRDS 10095727 and MRDS 10098646 Spencer Shaft.",
   "The recovered LKRC0001 and LKRC0013 collar positions.",
   "At LNK3-T01 specifically, that cover exceeds about 36 m. The operator's own abandoned hole established that, so 42% of the stated band was dead before it was written. Only the 45.2 m ceiling is prospective there."
  ],
  "PROSPECTIVE": "Only the depth to the base of cover at locations not yet drilled, logged and published as at the cutoff."
 },
 "BASELINES": {
  "B1": "constant depth 16.8 m below collar everywhere",
  "B2": "nearest hole with a known cover thickness. DISCLOSED: only one hole in the entire corpus has a measured cover thickness, so B2 collapses onto B1 and is NOT an independent baseline today.",
  "B3": "collar elevation minus the lowest 1 m lidar elevation within 250 m",
  "B4": "the operator's pre-cutoff expectation: contact deeper than 100 m with no limestone preserved between tuff and monzonite",
  "B5": "GQ-770 (McKee 1968, 1:62,500) unit at the collar; qualitative only, yields no depth and cannot be scored on error"
 },
 "GATES": {
  "G1": "at least 2 qualifying out-of-calibration holes",
  "G2": "MAE lower than the best of B1/B2/B3 by a factor of 2 or more AND by 8 m or more",
  "G3": "domain frozen before testing",
  "G4": "numeric tolerances stated",
  "G5": "resolvable by realistic future observation",
  "G6": "qualifying holes must span 15 m or more of collar elevation, else UNGRADEABLE",
  "evaluation_timing": "Frozen separately in GS_PRED_003_GATE_INTERPRETATION_V1.json before this seal. G3, G4 and G5 are pre-seal eligibility gates and all pass. G1, G2 and G6 are future-resolution gates, evaluated only when qualifying holes exist. No threshold may be weakened retrospectively."
 },
 "FALSIFIERS": {
  "F1": "any qualifying hole whose logged base of cover lies more than 15 m from RL 1771.2",
  "F2": "a regression slope of base-of-cover elevation on collar elevation closer to 1 than to 0",
  "F3": "more than 10 m of volcanic cover logged in the sub-datum half of LNK3-N01",
  "F4": "a hole at or within 25 m of the LKRC0001 collar reaching basement shallower than 29 m or deeper than 45 m",
  "F5": "published evidence of more than 30 m of relief on the cover base inside the domain",
  "F6": "baseline B3 reproducing the model within the G2 margin, in which case the case adds nothing and the record says so"
 },
 "RETROSPECTIVE_PERFORMANCE": {
  "LABEL": "TRAINING-ONLY. ZERO PROSPECTIVE CREDIT. Retrospective agreement is NOT predictive success and must never be reported as such.",
  "against_the_four_known_points_excluding_the_calibration_point": {
   "MODEL_MAE_m": 1.1,
   "B1_MAE_m": 17.6,
   "B2_MAE_m": 17.6,
   "B3_MAE_m": 15.23
  },
  "caveat": "n = 3, of which one is a one-sided bound and one is marginally violated. This number establishes only that sealing a prospective test is scientifically defensible. It establishes nothing else."
 },
 "COUNTER_EVIDENCE": [
  "The model rests on ONE two-sided measurement, LKRC0013. There are ZERO independent two-sided measurements of the buried surface anywhere in the domain.",
  "LKRC0001 supplies only a one-sided constraint: at about 36 m it was still in cover, so the base lies below RL 1772.4. It measures nothing.",
  "The MRDS 10095727 shaft, sunk in meta-limestone at ground elevation 1772.7 m, requires the palaeosurface to be at or above 1772.7 and therefore contradicts a perfectly constant 1771.2 m surface by 1.5 m.",
  "LKRC0001 and MRDS 10095727 cannot both hold for a strictly constant surface. Real palaeorelief of at least 0.3 m, and plausibly metre-scale, is therefore already implied by the evidence used to build the model.",
  "Twenty-five million years of Basin-and-Range extension are unaccounted for. A single normal fault of a few tens of metres inside the domain breaks a constant-elevation surface.",
  "No deposit-scale fault mapping exists inside the domain. GQ-770 at 1:62,500 resolves about 22 m per scan pixel and cannot show one.",
  "Whether 'volcanic cover from surface' is logged consistently is unknown. Weathered tuff and tuff-derived colluvium are exactly where a several-metre pick error on any individual hole would arise.",
  "The 75 m exclusion radius around the three historic workings is ARBITRARY. It was chosen because those prospects sit on bedrock highs, not from any measured error-decay length, which was never computed.",
  "Inside LNK3-T02 - the southwest extension, the zone the operator has stated it will return to and therefore the most likely to be drilled - baseline B3 reproduces this model to within 6.2 m on average, BELOW the 8 m margin G2 requires. Confining the test to T02 can leave this case unable to beat a baseline even if every predicted depth is right.",
  "LNK3-T01 is partially constrained by existing knowledge: the operator's own abandoned hole already established the base lies deeper than about 36 m, so 42% of the stated band was dead before it was written, and at T01 both simple baselines are already falsified so nothing remains there to beat.",
  "The structural slope test is currently uncomputable from known in-domain observations: exactly one qualifying point exists.",
  "The model is already known to FAIL at the three historic workings, by 17.4 m at Linka Main, 19.4 m at Hillside and 6.4 m at Conquest. The exclusion zone is a declared limitation, not a fix.",
  "CONFIDENCE was frozen at MEDIUM for every target. The pre-seal analysis found LOW would have been the better call. The frozen value stands, unchanged, because a confidence revised after the analysis is worthless."
 ],
 "MISSING_EVIDENCE": [
  "a second two-sided measurement of the cover base anywhere in the domain - one hole would roughly double the model's empirical basis",
  "the operator's vertical datum, stated nowhere in 47 announcements",
  "deposit-scale fault mapping inside the domain",
  "the operator's logging convention at the cover/basement pick",
  "a measured error-decay length near bedrock highs, which would have replaced the arbitrary 75 m radius"
 ],
 "NEXT_BEST_ACTION": "Wait for the next operator release carrying a regional or southwest-extension hole with a published collar and a logged cover base. Do not refine this model with further desk work: its weakness is n=1 and only a drillhole repairs that.",
 "SCORING_RULES": {
  "per_hole": {
   "CORRECT": "logged base of cover within 8 m of RL 1771.2",
   "PARTIAL": "within 15 m but outside 8 m",
   "FAILED": "outside 15 m, or no cover logged at a collar the model places more than 15 m above the datum",
   "UNGRADEABLE": "collar or log not published usably, or hole out of domain"
  },
  "case_level": {
   "CORRECT": "3 or more qualifying holes, all gates satisfied, 2/3 or more CORRECT and none FAILED",
   "PARTIAL": "gates satisfied and a majority CORRECT or PARTIAL",
   "FAILED": "a majority FAILED, or any falsifier fires",
   "UNGRADEABLE": "fewer than 2 qualifying holes, or the 15 m collar-elevation span is never achieved"
  },
  "T01_special_rule": "Per the frozen T01 note: zero credit for predicting depth greater than about 36 m, which was already known. A result in 36.0-45.2 m scores CORRECT and MUST always be reported with its floor marked pre-established, never as a clean prospective hit.",
  "UNGRADEABLE_is_first_class": "Never quietly counted as a hit, never used to retire an inconvenient target. Rows never disappear."
 },
 "GRADABILITY_RULES": {
  "CORRECT": "3 or more qualifying holes, all gates satisfied, 2/3 or more CORRECT and none FAILED",
  "PARTIAL": "gates satisfied and a majority CORRECT or PARTIAL",
  "FAILED": "a majority FAILED, or any falsifier fires",
  "UNGRADEABLE": "fewer than 2 qualifying holes, or the 15 m collar-elevation span is never achieved"
 },
 "PREDICTION_SHA256": "091764c3b29f08e11d3006987beefb0e9aaed3440dce8a3753505fa514d52ad1",
 "ENCRYPTED_SHA256": "a6eeae3d241266ee9391250a883543349b96170a11fa3e820897826b301c5ad3",
 "PREREGISTRATION_SHA256": "2fc361a36f43ec9ae1d24ec82126d8dbb454085eab9afb20e94bca71ed771917",
 "GATE_INTERPRETATION_SHA256": "3dba9c03cdffaceac373bd9dcff3b44f09b1607b20091f9390d0c3a60ff9140b",
 "T01_PRIOR_KNOWLEDGE_NOTE_SHA256": "8f729044de4e512e95f8943595ab97fb26015be9f1e130b9624f7f64174e5611",
 "GEOMETRY_SHA256": "3d2d20bf396dede6087c054205f9f76d1b01130ffb5387fd2b3a916ea46efbb3",
 "PACKAGE_ROLLUP_SHA256": "4c99c0747789411997e57dece36f74093a4fa1dc0f04d23208b966654969fd11",
 "CORPUS_SHA256": "e65bbac7ef4870361fbba78f47bb72cb4ae555a5f2c12357c9f05f90601419ca",
 "CORPUS_DESCRIPTION": "124 documents to 2026-09-10, plus a 37-record spatial extension (manifest sha256 75bb3d58...). The 1 m lidar used by the model is USGS 3DEP NV_EastCentral_2021_D21, sha256 85a67844...",
 "STATUS": "SEALED - INDEPENDENT OUTCOME PENDING",
 "OUTCOME": null,
 "SCORE": null,
 "CONTAMINATION_CHECK": {
  "performed_utc": "2026-09-12T08:42:26Z",
  "route": "ASX company announcement index for VKA, HTTP 200",
  "latest_announcement": "2026-09-09T23:39:03Z MAIDEN DRILLING AT LINKA TUNGSTEN DELIVERS 14M @ 0.56% WO3",
  "result": "CLEAN - nothing published after the cutoff, and no target outcome is disclosed anywhere"
 },
 "IMMUTABILITY": "The sealed original is never edited - not for a typo, not to clarify wording. Scoring happens in a separate file referencing the prediction hash above. The encrypted original is published now; the key is released when the independent outcome lands.",
 "WHAT_THIS_DOES_NOT_CLAIM": [
  "No tungsten, scheelite, skarn, favourable carbonate, WO3 grade, tonnage or economic claim of any kind. This case predicts COVER GEOMETRY ONLY.",
  "No claim about what lies BENEATH the cover base. One of four known points logged limestone there; the operator's own interpretation expected none.",
  "No claim outside the declared domain, and specifically none within 75 m of the three historic workings.",
  "No claim that GeaSpirit discovered or verified anything at Linka. The drilling, logging and assaying are the operator's work.",
  "Sealing is not validation. One sealed case is an anecdote, and this one rests on a single calibration point."
 ],
 "CLASSIFICATION": {
  "outcome_status": "PENDING",
  "scoring_protocol": "per-hole tolerance ladder plus a case-level rule, both preregistered",
  "jurisdiction": "Lander County, Nevada, USA"
 }
}